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玫瑰

无法超越的优雅是年龄的特权

 
 
 

日志

 
 

THE SANDS AND THE FURY(雷曼之后是迪拜?)  

2009-11-28 00:03:05|  分类: 默认分类 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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Argentina's default in 2001 didn't come out of the blue. Nor did Lehman's collapse. Yet both caused shockwaves. Now it may be Dubai's turn. Investors fear that a debt standstill by Dubai World, the city kingdom's largest state-owned conglomerate, is a prelude to a forced restructuring of its estimated $60bn of liabilities. This has caused a repricing of risk both in and beyond the Gulf. Bank share prices took a pummelling yesterday. HSBC, down 5 per cent, was among the worst hit, given its estimated $16bn exposure to the United Arab Emirates. The dollar and bunds rose.

But is it all such a big surprise? From the Tower of Babel to Kuala Lumpur's Petronas Tower, an uncanny historical correlation exists between building height and hubris. And at 810 metres, the Burj Dubai, due to be completed next year, will be the tallest building in the world.

What may have surprised investors is Dubai's relatively weak debt payment abilities. With a gross domestic product of about $75bn, the emirate's state-owned companies must repay some $22bn of bonds before the end of 2011. Yet Dubai also has a liberal tax regime, small hydrocarbon revenues and a persistent fiscal deficit. Future funds will therefore have to come through asset sales, new debt issuance or support from its richer UAE neighbour, Abu Dhabi. Sitting on the world's largest sovereign wealth fund, with $630bn of assets, it is not a question of can Abu Dhabi help, but will it – and for which assets and on what terms?

If the worst comes to the worst, foreign creditors could face a rough ride. Local rules are generally unfriendly to creditors. The nature of Islamic sukuk bonds may be another complication. Working for investors is the reputational damage that the UAE's ruling royal families may face. Lenders today have less incentive to accept punitive or involuntary restructurings as they can call in their credit insurance instead. Any sign of Gulf brinkmanship therefore makes default more, rather than less, likely.

根廷2001年的违约并非毫无前兆。雷曼(Lehman)破产也是如此。但两者都对市场产生了冲击。现在或许轮到迪拜了。投资者担心,迪拜最大国有集团迪拜世界(Dubai World)暂停偿债,是其大约600亿美元债务被迫重组的序曲。人们不得不对海湾区内外的国家的风险进行重新定价。银行股股价昨日大幅下挫。鉴于在阿联酋大约160亿美元的风险敞口,汇丰(HSBC)成为受冲击最为严重的一家银行,股价下跌5%。美元和德国国债则出现上涨。

但这真的如此令人吃惊吗?从“巴别塔”(Tower of Babel)到吉隆坡的“双子星塔”(Petronas Towers),建筑物高度与狂妄之间存在一种神秘的历史关联。将于明年完工、高810米的比斯迪拜塔 (Burj Dubai)将成为世界上最高的建筑物。

让投资者感到意外的,或许是迪拜相对疲弱的债务偿付能力。迪拜的国内生产总值约为750亿美元,而其国有企业在2011年年底前必须偿还约220亿美元的债券。与此同时,迪拜税制环境宽松,碳氢化合物收入不高,财政持续维持赤字。因此迪拜未来的资金来源只能是出售资产、发行新债或从更富裕的邻国阿布扎比获得支持。阿布扎比坐拥资产规模达6300亿美元资产的全球最大主权财富基金,问题不在于它能否提供帮助,而是它愿意吗?如果愿意的话,又会向哪些资产提供援助,以及条件是什么?

如果出现最糟糕的情况,外国债权人将面临艰难的局面。当地法规普遍不利于债权人。伊斯兰债券(sukuk)的特性或许是另一个搅局的因素。有利于投资者的一点是,阿联酋执政王族可能会忌惮名誉受损。由于可以依赖信用保险,贷款机构如今已不太愿意接受惩罚性或自愿的债务重组方案。因此,海湾国家推行边缘政策的任何迹象都会加大(而非降低)违约的可能性。

from Finance Times

注: 今天欧洲股市大跌.沪市大跌.

 

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